Actually, fear masonry wall was collapse, citizenry spoke, and “spring in Arab world” might be in front of eyes. Message of Tunisia, until now is clear: corrupt and authoritative regimes, you must be careful—except you reform yourself quickly and comprehensively, your age will end soon.
Biggest danger is this Yasmin Revolution can be abreast a struggle way anticommunist in Rumania 20 years ago when old regime hoodlum overthrows their bosses in order to be in dominance calyx continuously.
However, most correct analogy for Tunisia recently is Spain in years toward and after passing away Francisco Franco. By opening itself to world through tourism, and stressing importance of stressing on education and rights for women community, Ben Ali regime has been success to create unique thing in Mid East: a conscious middle class. But this regime, is like dictator regime Franco, did not subject the new middle class as adult people. As the consequence, frustration appeared in extending.
Therefore, wrong if it not dangerous, comparing Tunisia and its Yasmin Revolution with other countries in this area agree with each national concept.
However, if Maroko appears stable recently, Most of them because two factors: monarchy and reformation. Led by a galaxy of technocrat around The King Mohammed VI who is still young, reformation process—included political liberalization—run continuously, although the result is still simple. Furthermore, Mohammed VI, as “Panglima Umat Beragama”, it is beneficial by “muslim” legitimating that is not had by leaders of Aljazair and Egypt, two of most sensitive regime in this area. And Maroko, different from Aljazair, not experience oil damnation suffering.
Although Tunisia case is unique, not wise if we belittle its influence potential in this area, when Arab young generation in Facebook and Twitter era today feel “Tunisia vibration” in their selves. They are also humiliated by behavior of their leaders, and, moreover because of their vulgar despotism essence. They also hunger freedom. Whatever Yasmin Revolution happened, and although its influence to Arab world is not as strong as Berlin masonry wall falling out for Europe, it illustrates “before” and “after” it.
Illustration “after it” will illuminate two political development model potentials for Arab world: Turkey and Iran. If revolution facet that is begun at Tunisia spread to whole Arab world, ho many countries will be fixated to abreast Turkey’s openness model and how many countries will abreast Iran fundamentalism model? It’s sure becoming rather simplistically dichotomy. There is grey area in the experiment “Moderate Islam” happen at Turkey, an—outside mullah-mullah who are of power at Iran—there is reason for expectation on character that is tempestuous and tough in madani society at Turkey.
The real, the western gives more preference on Turkey model. Most of Europe society desire Turkey will not change in enough separated distance—but faced on a change and possible confusion, if not chaos happened in Arab world. They really appreciate Turkey’s potential play role as a stabilizer in this region.
The certain, history will not recur. But can such neo-Usmaniyyah order become answer for a risk of confusion in Arab world? Turkey under Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan played big and big role in this region, and raised Turkey’s image in Arab society when taking hard diplomatic position to Israel, which is in Jun 2010 attacked plane group that carry humanity assistance went to Gaza by initiative of a Turkey charity institution.
But becoming popular is not same with becoming a model. Turkey proved that Islam and the modernity can be in a row. But Turkey is regarded as an inheritor of Khilafah Usmaniyah and Arab world—different from expectations of western world—may not be ready to change experienced frustration today with lower confession that it needs to adopt model what is served a previously country that ever colonizes them to advance as a modern country.
Therefore, it’s dangerous to guess that, after Yasmin revolution in Tunisia, democracy in Arab world was before very eyes, it’s same when fantasizing conviction that there is not whatever change will happen. Good or bad, history is going forward in Arab world—and the western doesn’t have efforts what can be done to restrain it.
***
Original title: Musim Bunga Dunia Arab?
Source: Dominique Moisi. Koran Tempo, Senin, 31 Januari 2011
[Arsip 5/2/2011]
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